Fondateur de Soundwise : Crypto Macro Development Logic hauv 2022

This article features thoughts from Soundwise Founder Natasha Che on her own social media platform. Rhythm BlockBeats creates it and defines it as follows:

2021 will be compatible with cryptocurrencies. Over the next year or so, the changes in the macro environment and the popular tech cycle will be different. Here are three key points for cryptocurrency investments in 2022 that I personally consider and disagree with.

First, let's repeat 2021.

Loosened monetary policy and monetary policy after the new crown spread gave a boost to the growth of all risk averse assets, with the overall market value of cryptocurrencies increasing 300% year over year .

The rapid growth of the measure is also due to the real-world use of cryptocurrencies first seen in DeFi and NFT.

The total significance rate (TVL) in the DeFi industry increased by 1600% last year.

On the Ethereum chain alone, the market value of NFTs increased by 16,600% compared to the same period last year.

The 2nd generation smart contract for public channel use of Stake Proof (PoS) provides important infrastructure for these application scenarios and increased costs.

But as inflation rises, the Fed should "do something" now, even though inflation is often caused by bottlenecks in the commodity chain rather than overheated demand.

This is why the Fed has so far not acted. But if the audience says it's difficult, it will ultimately be unnecessary, but will ultimately lead to action.

In 2022, the Fed will post a solid balance sheet and attempt to raise rates. However, considering that the costs of public and private enterprises are too high and that inflation is often a matter of temporary assets, the potential for significant inflation appears low.

However, the policy and fiscal circumstances in 2022 will almost certainly be tightened.

Purchasing power declines due to inflation, and reversing external financial support is no different from contributing to economic growth.

At the end of the first quarter of next year, macro analysts will be busy driving down their growth.

However, in terms of cryptocurrencies, the popularity of Web 3 technology is only just beginning.

According to the Internet experience and the expanding wave of mobile phone development, when the user base of new technologies reaches 1 billion, the severity of large industrial applications will begin to explode.

By comparison, Ethereum currently only has 180 million addresses. It will take five years to reach the current development's billion users, according to a representative of the popularity of Web 3.

Sectors that will thrive at this stage of adoption will be Web 3 infrastructure and high value-added niche applications.

3 laureates in 2022

1. Game pie

On the demand side, there is an overlap between stakeholder groups and early cryptocurrency adoption groups. There is a standard demand for gamers with gaming equipment, a natural environment for NFTs. The drop also prompted gamers to earn in-game cash.

On the supply side, cheaper and faster second-gen layers 1 and 2 make the game transport process more efficient.

The needs of the catalyst industry are now the best blockchain games players really want to play to stabilize the token market.

The good news is that the blockchain boom has attracted a lot of tech-savvy games to the field. At least some of their work will start to bear fruit in 2022. You can focus on potential activities like the Gala Games.

2. Layer 1 public channel and Layer 2 solution

2021 is not an event because it is on the public channel Phase 1.

The great popularity of Web 3 depends on the expansion of the public channel, so the second generation L1, which can support the growth of the channel's application, also accounts for the majority of the development costs of the current crypto boom. .

These models will continue until 2022 as more Ethereum L2 solutions join the race (we started earlier).

In terms of ROI risk, in my opinion L1 public channel is better than L2 and L2 better than Ethereum.

At its current stage, L1 has better integration and integration capabilities into its own ecosystem, while L2 is able to work with existing Ethereum users and is smaller in the first stage, so there is a lot room for improvement. .

However, the L2 is now more competitive on the same scale and can be more difficult to differentiate than the L1. However, if completed, this L2 would be where most new value-added developments are, not just Ethereum.

3. Crossbreeding solutions

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum occupy almost all of the global blockchain, so the demand for exchanges and joint ventures (partnerships) is not very high. However, this fact is changing rapidly.

Encrypting traffic between "country" and "city" with the frequent improvement of the L1 and L2 multiples and the new chain developed by the website of the 2 companies will be the next challenge in the blockchain space.

In this way, the sector must grow rapidly. Currently, there are no big bosses, and we do not know where the additional cost will come from. (A similar DeFi scenario will be described below.) We can focus on potential applications in this area, such as Quant resolution and Layer Zero (Polkadot).

On the other hand, the next two jobs might not perform well next year.

1. Challenge

Of course, the entire industry will continue to grow. However, until now, DeFi moats have been difficult to protect against personal apps (including some privacy concerns). Therefore, the L1 public channel at the bottom of this app is not the DeFi app itself, but is the biggest beneficiary of DeFi development.

In addition, progress in introducing raw materials into the supply chain is still slow, which could be critical for the growth of the middle market.

Third, strong financial regulations can also hurt DeFi operations. Currently, most DeFi 2.0 projects look like Ponzi schemes without mentioning actual token usage, and most of the token fees are due to short-term earnings from "protocol-held liquidity." .

Crypto's first “boost” was finding advertisements and performance for tokens.

The protocol control values ​​are good. However, if the market pulls the demand, the situation will be very difficult when the “winter blockchain” arrives. Because there is no bottom line, the benefits are not worth it.

2. Social pie

Generator tokens exploded in early 2021. I think they will explode eventually. But we still have many years to come. Other companies trying to build a P2P Web 3 marketplace, like Amazon and Uber, are on the same side as well.

As mentioned earlier, when the new technology reaches 1 billion users, the appeal of large companies will start to explode. The popularity of cryptocurrencies is not enough to encourage thousands of developers to generate their own small profits.

The result of using social media is the need for new technologies. The explosive growth of Web 2 social media comes after 100 million users.

Currently, Ethereum has less than one million active users and OpenSea has less than 25,000 active users. Currently, the popularity of cryptocurrencies is not sufficient to support the growth of applications such as Bitclout.