Recommendation: Bitcoin Map 2021

CYC Labs view 24627 2022-1-24 09:23
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In 2021, Bitcoin's hashrate distribution, market share, and prices have changed drastically due to exchange rate policy in China and the United States. At the same time, unexpected but demanding changes are quietly taking place in the world.

1. Review of BTC trends 2021

Prices are constantly changing and the bull market is not over yet

After mid-May 2020, Bitcoin entered the bull market period. Throughout 2021 Bitcoin has been affected by the rule and the price is on a roller coaster season. The highest Bitcoin price in 2021 was 68,721.93 USDT in October and the lowest price was 28,805.00 USDT in July.

In 2021, the market share of BTC is expected to increase from 70.97% at the start of the year to at least 39.29%. BTC shares once rebounded 47.26% at the end of August, but since the end of the year they have remained at an all-time low.

Figure 1 BTC performances in 2021


Image source: CYC finish

In terms of earnings, the Bitcoin annual return is 57.31%, the S&P 500 return is 25.95%, the CSI 500 return is 15.58%, the Hang Seng Index return is of -14.12%, and the rate of increase in the price of gold is -4.38%.Comparisons from the same period show that Bitcoin's total return in 2020 is still superior to traditional assets, and Bitcoin remains a valid investment..

Figure 2 Bitcoin price halving and market share in 2012 and 2016



Image source: CYC finish

Compare price increases and market trades since the Bitcoin halvings of 2012 and 2016,We believe that the current Bitcoin bull market has not passed yet and will continue for at least a month.

Chinese government policy affects the pace of the BTC bull market

May and September 2021,China released data on diverse markets to limit crypto asset mining and trading.

Previously, China relinquished its authority in 2020 after defining cryptocurrency mining assets following the removal of production capital and restrictions. In this cycle of cryptocurrency asset circulation, China is redefining cryptocurrency asset mining as the elimination of production capacity and maintaining a heavy and continuous crackdown, which means that in a market in which China has the largest share of BTC mining computing power, it’s essentially not power consumption. . Prior to this policy, the Chinese market accounted for a quarter of the global energy market while the Chinese market accounted for the majority of China's BTC mining energy. Due to the lower energy number, the price of crypto assets led by Bitcoin fell almost 50% at one point until its rally last August.

After the Chinese government banned the fiat OTC market in September, Huobi and Binance announced the posting rules for consumers in China, calling for gray cattle to enter the market. Trade rebounded shortly after restrictions began in September and peaked again in November when the Chinese government issued several documents to restrict trade and deposits and withdrawals. The market began to decline in November and continued until the end of the year due to the risk of Chinese investors leaving the market for many cryptocurrencies during the 10. Two months.

This year, the bull market has been affected by the exchange rate policy in China, which will continue to apply and affect the economic model.From the development perspective of crypto assets, China's policy affects the distribution of goods, but does not affect the development and growth of enterprises.

Completion of projections for 2020

The value of Bitcoin exceeds $100,000.

Not used.Bull market expectations are still for Q2 2022. We estimate the high to be between 86,000 USDT and 124,000 USDT. In 2021, while the market is paralyzed by law, the bull cycle continues and the rise in prices is expected to decline further. Therefore, we expect Bitcoin not to exceed $100,000 in 2022.

Bitcoin fiat trading will become more flexible and oversight will provide a clear legal framework for fiat trading and an open channel for traders to follow.

Part used.In 2022, El Salvador announced that Bitcoin could be exported to the country as profitable value and could be used for everyday payments and transactions. This decision increases the patience of bitcoin fiat trading. Additionally, in Europe and the United States, the growth of centralized exchanges has made trading channels on bitcoin and fiat smoother, and traders can easily use fiat to trade bitcoins from exchanges.

Even in 2022, the law has yet to provide a clear regulatory framework for fiat currency trading, but the formalization of this framework is already underway. Policy groups have been established in the US and EU countries to research the economy and promote policy making.

Announcement of BTC / ETH rights based on ETF funds.

Not used.In 2022, future ETFs based on BTC will be issued. However, funds based on BTC and ETH cannot be legalized. By policy, direct advertising of ETFs within existing regulatory frameworks is difficult as BTC and ETH assets are still outside the regulatory framework. In this regard, the legal publication of BTC/ETH-based ETF funds still has a long way to go.

DCEP is sponsored by Alipay/WeChat Payments and has been announced and implemented in major cities in China.

Know everythingCurrently in China, DCEP is supported not only by Alipay/WeChat payments, but also by major online companies such as and ByteDance. In the application, the digital RMB has been released for APP download and has been put into use in major cities nationwide.

Cross-chain Bitcoin assets could be another way to increase the value of crypto assets.

Not used.This prediction is incorrect. Cross-chain encryption of crypto assets is a breakthrough with clear needs, but the demand has not yet grown enough to support the rapid growth of the entire industry and ecosystem. Judging by the current promotion, it will take more than five years to complete this quote.

2. Assessment of the global macroeconomic environment in 2021

Assessment of the US economic environment in 2021

US inflation will be high throughout 2021,This is due to the combination of equipment such as chains, increased labor costs and ease of financing.At the same time, the United States faces a transition from a recession to a boom in 2021 due to a surplus of its currency.

Figure 3 Previous cpi exchange in the United States


Data source: Bloomberg

Of the top three causes of a high CPI in the United States,The increase in wages is due to the shortage of manpower due to the spread and the initial cost of the helicopter, while the increase in costs is affected by supply.Besides profits, the two main reasons for the rise in the CPI are close to the new crown, which the United States will consider ruling. Before the second quarter, the Fed's policy is still to support economic growth. Next, the Fed should adopt a monetary easing plan to reduce inflation. This is because inflation is still high. Helicopter revenues fell in the first quarter and QE declined in the third quarter. In November, the Fed began announcing that it would end its first quarter crisis and raise inflation by 2022.

According to Ray Dalio,The inner circle of main power can be divided into stages.: New orders began, a new culture uniting forces, the division of money and government bureaucracy were established and improved, peace and prosperity arose, excessive spending and the value of debt, the gap between rich and poor and political and financial instability, conflict; war or revolution. The United States is currently at level 4. The financial crisis, the instability is severe, and the financial crisis has resulted from the current changes in the economy and financial policy.

Analysis of China's economic environment in 2021

By 2021, China's annual economic growth will reach 8%, indicating rapid growth and then slowdown. aEconomic growth in the quarter was 18.3% at one time, but slowly fell to 4% in the fourth quarter. China's economic growth is mainly due to the stress of globalization of goods through the development of new diseases, and China has achieved rapid growth in different countries with the help of general goods and the management of "dynamic cleaning". .

Since the second quarter of the Chinese economy, domestic demand has been evident due to the strong recovery and strong property management. At the same time, in the absence of a short-term policy, leaders in some areas are content to implement site-wide power management strategies, resulting in shocks, leading to utility bills. less heavy electricity, and affecting the economic performance of the site. middle and lower. and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). and small businesses. Exports to China began to decline as overseas production slowly picked up from the second quarter. The resurgence of the epidemic in Jiangsu has led to an increase in housing demand and capacity utilization.

From the perspective of domestic and foreign investment and consumption, China's economy will manage to grow in 2021 overall, but there will be a lot of hidden risks and growth.

Development and mutation of a new disease in 2021

By 2021, the new epidemic will have seen the three main epidemics in April, August and December.The main new strain, which doubled in April and August, was the Delta strain, and in December it switched to the Omicron strain, which is more contagious than the Delta strain but less potent (violence).

Figure 4 Every day there are new diseases in the world


Information sources: Medsci

In recent years, vaccines in Europe and developed countries have gradually increased, with the United States' 2-dose vaccine exceeding 70%, Israel's 3-dose vaccine also exceeding 70%, and four injections have been launched. In China, the vaccination rate with two doses is about 86%, which is the highest in the world.

From the perspective of the virus change from 2019 to the present, the novel coronavirus has strengthened the immune system and can spread the disease in these exchangeable ways, but its toxicity has been synchronously reduced by less than 0.5%.

Figure 5 The number of deaths each day from new diseases worldwide


Source d'information : Medsci

In the current development,Epidemics seem to be exacerbated during pregnancy and in children.

Changes in the regulatory environment for crypto assets in 2021

In 2021, zone management for crypto assets has undergone major changes. First of allbitcoin monetization, the next timeRapid expansion of crypto financial derivatives thanks to DeFi 2.0 improvements, ThenBitcoin ETF Products. These changes have made managing crypto assets more difficult and demanding.

June 2021,El Salvador hla Bitcoin Bill, the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as fiat currency, transforming the strength of Bitcoin from a single central crypto asset to one with currencies, further complicating asset reserve assets.

DeFi 2.0 will become a major player in the financial services sector in the second quarter of 2021.While DeFi in the 1.0 era focuses on lending and banking, DeFi in the 2.0 era focuses on financial derivatives and futures trading. DeFi 2.0 provides more assets through the use of energy and mining resources with the help of assets, making them dependent on the value of assets, reducing investment risk and presenting the advantages of currency risk. For states to govern DeFi, they must continue to expand and improve their oversight as DeFi operations improve.

3. Consideration of developments in cryptocurrency in 2022

Following the projections we made in 2020, we will continue to announce five considerations for improvement in 2022.

Cryptocurrency bull market that started in 2020 will end in Q1

Prior to 2020, we predicted that the BTC bull market would end in March and mid-June. After reporting the outcome of the FOMC meeting as an update, we counted it again.BTC trading is expected to end no later than early or mid-March.

Bitcoin highs have been rising all the time between $80,000 and $120,000.

Our previous predictions suggest that BTC's all-time high will be pushed back to $8-120,000 this year in the bull market. Adjusting for the new term, I think the cost will appear in the $8-100,000 range rather than the $10-120,000 range. CornOverall, we also agree that Bitcoin's highs at any given time can be between $80,000 and $120,000.

Most DeFi 2.0 applications are forged, making it easy to renew DeFi.

Many tasks in DeFi 2.0 have no real need and only concern new applications to be developed.The technology highlights the volatility in the price of crypto assets and also increases the risk of other assets. Most DeFi 2.0 operating systems currently have poor protection and cannot support the application value in the weather forecast industry.

With the emergence of the device market, DeFi 2.0 projects that have proven innovative for innovation purposes will seem to be hit and die.DeFi resources will be reorganized into parent projects and create more working environment around real needs.. This process can be seen as a reconstruction of DeFi.

GameFi changes your current environment through pre-game.

Currently, the development of GameFi is limited by its members, and only mining or monetization are still important to attract users. However, designing a project based on support mechanisms is easy for two reasons.death limit:Alarm clocks are no good because the present is goneWhereInvolution due to reduced investment return. Therefore, further development of GameFi should extend to existing commercial users.

Based on our research on game development over the past 30 years, we find that gaming is a kind of tight demand, and the right game encourages players to pay attention to it. The characteristics of a good game are generallyGameplay, graphicsyetlong term revival3 things. For us, gameplay will be a key area for GameFi to explode.

In addition to China, EU and CBDC exit

Of the main countries of the world,China has been a leader in the research and application of CBDCs and has now entered the phase of general demographic testing.The questions in this area are therefore: the EU the United States.

Given the current advancements, the European Union and the United States are conducting research and development on CBDC technology. From an environmental policy perspective, the EU has been more tolerant of innovation than the US and has provided new support for the development of cryptographic infrastructure. soEU puts CBDC ahead of US


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