Gold will shine again and Bitcoin will drop to 12,000. President Stifel's surprise.

An important argument in favor of cryptocurrencies by many is that they are an alternative to fiat currencies, which have an impact on inflation, like the US dollar or the euro, because they limit the supply.

Barry Bannister, managing director of U.S. Attorney General Stifel, said whether or not this is true, assets should keep inflation out by reporting huge profits early in the transmission. This is because Bitcoin thrives in a very liquid environment. It has increased by more than 800% since March 2020.

So it's amazing that the rise itself could do so much damage to Bitcoin over the next few months. The biggest cryptocurrency since November 8 is down 28% to $ 48,000.

The consumer price index (November), a key indicator of inflation, hit its highest level in nearly 40 years, up 6.8% from the same period last year. The Fed will soon start cutting asset purchases twice, reducing purchases from $ 15 billion to $ 30 billion. This means that our rate hike is expected in 2022.

Bannister said the decision would be reduced to:International commodity denominated in US dollars harms Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has always been a strong speculative asset, liquid in design,” said Bannister. “The charts show that the slowdown in global M2 financial growth should favor Bitcoin in the near term. That's my take,” Bannister said. in the report.

“If the Fed starts to raise prices, the US dollar will strengthen. The United States accounts for only about 21% of global revenue. Thus, in the United States, the rate of other world currencies fell by 79%. The figure was lower.

Below is a photo courtesy of Bannister.

The report was released Tuesday during Stifel's "Business Outlook Webinar" in 2022. In his remarks, Bannister also revealed another indication that he is learning, indicating that Bitcoin's future path is a bullet.

The first is that commodity risk continues to rise as commodity prices start to fall. Risk-taking rates are investors who earn in the stock market beyond the benefits of the risk-free 10-year treasury chart. Risk volatility is now increasing as commodity prices appear to have risen after rising interest rates and inflation since March 2020.

Historically, this was bad news for Bitcoin price movements. As the price of risk increases, the value of Bitcoin tends to fall.

This site is generally not good for Bitcoin, but it is generally good for gold. Below is the same form of gold. It shows that as the risk of commodity prices increases, the price of precious metals increases.

Bannister said in his Outlook 2022 report: Bitcoin is a very valuable asset in high risk markets with rising stock prices. "

“Gold, on the other hand, is better protection against risk averse trade events (risk aversion continues to rise). Removed, gold is recovering. (Post-inflation) rate recovery.”

Bannister also measured the performance of Bitcoin against gold and found that Bitcoin is in 2 different versions of the curve model. Bitcoin data is logarithmically altered and adjusted for the slope of the gold exchange rate.

From the current position on the different line, Bitcoin's decline is as low as $ 12,000 and its rise is near $ 134,000.

Bannister believes the current trading environment prefers gold over Bitcoin and warns that cryptocurrencies could be volatile in the future.

“The fair value is actually $ 27,000 if you think the model is priced right,” Bannister said during a webinar. "But, as Old Wall Street sees it, fair prices go from low to low, from low to overestimated. Fair prices only last a day or two."

He said: "During a financial recession, I think Bitcoin will drop to $ 12,000. It will collapse. Like in 2020, 2019 and '15, '16, '17. It's usually the year."